The Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal fixture in the semi-finals of the 2022 Australian Open will take place on Wednesday, 28 January 2022, starting at 3:30 a.m. GMT. The venue is Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne. Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal (January 28) prediction and betting tips can be found below.

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal (January 28) latest odds on betting sites

Rafael Nadal is priced with the odds of 1.60 (-167 American; 3/5 Fractional) to qualify for the final, which equals an approximate probability of 60%. Matteo Berrettini comes with the odds of 2.50 (+150; 3/2) to win this match. The chances of his triumph are around 40%.

The latest odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal (January 28):

• Over 38.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
• Under 38.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
• Asian handicap (-1.5) sets on Nadal — 2.05 (+105; 21/20)
• Asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Berrettini — 1.75 (-133; 3/4)
• Asian handicap (-3.5) games on Nadal — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
• Asian handicap (+3.5) games on Berrettini — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal (January 28) match preview and stats

Matteo Berrettini won over Gael Monfils (6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 3-6, 6-2) in the 2022 Australian Open QFs.

The tennis players were equal to a 2-2 score in the first set. Matteo Berrettini won the fifth game to nil and then tennis players continued winning service games. Gael had a breakpoint in the last game but he did not convert it and Matteo won the set.

Berrettini had three breakpoints in the first game of the second set. Then both tennis players were equal to a 2-1 score. Gael had three breakpoints in the fourth game too but Matteo saved all. In the seventh game, Berrettini converted a single breakpoint. Then he did not give Monfils breakpoint opportunities to finish the set with a 6-4 score.

Berrettini and Monfils had their breakpoints in second return games of the third set but they did not finish them successfully. The French tennis player converted one out of two breakpoints in the sixth game and did not give Matteo more breakpoints to finish the set with a 6-3 score.

Matteo saved a breakpoint in the first game. However in the fifth game Gael Monfils finished a breakpoint successfully. Then tennis players traded winning service games to a 5-3 score. In the last game, Monfils got five breakpoints and converted the last one.

Matteo Berrettini won the first four games of the last set easily. He converted two out of three breakpoints and did not give a breakpoint opportunity during these games. Then both players performed confidently in service games to a 6-2 score.

A total of over 3.5 sets has played out in four of the five matches in the 2022 Australian Open with Berrettini participating. The same total is priced with the odds of 1.50 (-200; 1/2) this time.

Rafael Nadal eliminated Denis Shapovalov (6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-3) in the quarter-finals game at the 2022 Australian Open.

Both tennis players did not give each other breakpoint opportunities in the first set in spite of the fourth game. Rafa had a single breakpoint in this game and finally won it to nil.

In the second set, both tennis players performed equally to a 3-3 score. In the seventh game, Nadal converted a single breakpoint. Rafael Nadal had one more breakpoint in the ninth game but did not finish it successfully.

The tennis players did not give each other breakpoint opportunities to a 3-2 score in the third set. Denis got two breakpoints but Rafa saved both. Then tennis players traded winning service games to a 5-4 score. Denis had two breakpoints and saved the last one in the last game.

They confidently won their first service games in the fourth set. Shapovalov won three games in a row to a 4-1 score. He converted 100% of breakpoints and did not give his rival breakpoints in these games. After that tennis players traded winning service games to finish the set with a 6-3 score.

Rafa started the last set confidently. He won the first three games and did not give breakpoint opportunities after the third game. Nadal converted 100% of breakpoints and did not give his rival a breakpoint opportunity.

Rafael Nadal has won the second set in the last eight matches. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 1.65 (-154; 13/20) in this semi-final.

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal H2H

Rafael Nadal won over Matteo Berrettini (7-6, 6-4, 6-1) in the 2019 US Open. He won all 14 service games and 83% of points. Rafa won four out of 15 return games and 42% of points. He converted 25% of breakpoints and did not give his rival breakpoint opportunities.

Berrettini won 73% of service games and 58% of points. He did not win a return game and won 17% of return points. Matteo Berrettini saved 12 out of 16 breakpoints but did not have a breakpoint to convert.

Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal (January 28) betting tips and prediction

Rafael Nadal has performed perfectly at the 2022 Australian Open. He lost only three sets in five matches against strong rivals. However, Matteo Berrettini played well in these five fixtures too but his rivals were not as strong as Rafa’s. Nadal performed outstandingly in the single head-to-head match against Berrettini. I believe that Rafael will qualify for the final for sure. However, we could see a total over 39.5 games in the match because Matteo is in good form now.

Betting prediction: Rafael Nadal to win & over 3.5 sets

Odds: 2.40 (+140 American; 7/5 Fractional)

Betting prediction: Over 39.5 games

Odds: 1.95 (-195 American; 19/20 Fractional)