The Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs fixture in the 2021-22 NHL will take place on Friday, 6 May 2022, starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. The kickoff time is 11:30 p.m. by GMT this day. The venue is Amalie Arena, Tampa.

Latest odds on betting sites

The Tampa Bay Lightning are priced with the odds of 2.30 (+130 American; 13/10 Fractional) to win the next match in full-time, which equals an approximate probability of 43%. The Toronto Maple Leafs come with the odds of 2.70 (+170; 17/10) to take two points before the overtime. The chances of this outcome are approximately equal to 37%. The draw is priced with the odds of 4.60 (+360; 18/5), which equals an approximate probability of 20%.

The latest odds for Lightning vs Maple Leafs (6 May 2022):

• Over 6.5 goals — 2.20 (+120; 6/5)
• Under 6.5 goals — 1.80 (-125; 4/5)
• Asian handicap (-1.5) on Lightning — 2.80 (+180; 9/5)
• Asian handicap (+1.5) on Maple Leafs — 1.40 (-250; 2/5)

Match preview and statistics

The Tampa Bay Lightning pulled the Maple Leafs (5-3) down in the previous round.

In the first period, the Lightning did not play perfectly. They made nine shots on target and completed 22 defensive actions. In spite of this defensive style, they opened the score in the last minute of the period. Victor Hedman converted the power play opportunity with Alex Killorn’s support.

Tampa played much better in the second period. They made 14 shots on target and finished two of them successfully. The Lightning had two power play opportunities and converted one of them. Corey Perry and Nikita Kucherov scored two goals in the 23rd and 30th minutes, respectively. Victor Hedman was the first assistant in both these goals.

In the last period, the Lightning played well too. They made 11 shots, won eight face-offs and bagged two goals. Brandon Hagel scored the fourth goal in the 42nd minute. In the 46th minute, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman helped Brayden Point to convert a power play opportunity.

Victor Hedman finished this match as the first star with one goal and three assists. Nikita Kucherov was the second star with one assist less. Andrei Vasilevskiy played much better in the second round. He saved 31 out of 34 shots on target.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have scored seven goals in power play in the last five matches. They are priced with the odds of 1.75 (-133; 3/4) to convert a power play opportunity this time.

Tampa Bay Lightning team news: Brent Seabrook — shoulder injury.

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost the second round against the Tampa Bay Lightning (3-5).

Sheldon Keefe’s boys played well in the first period, but did not score a goal. They made 13 shots on target and won nine face-offs. The Toronto Maple Leafs had two power play opportunities, but did not convert both.

In the second period, their performance was not confident. In spite of their defensive playstyle, they conceded two goals. They played passively and finished the second 20 minutes with eight shots on target and 18 defensive actions. In the 28th minute, Mitchell Marner and Auston Mattews helped Michael Bunting to score the first goal.

In the third period, the Maple Leafs played much better. They made 13 shots on target and scored two goals. Sheldon Keefe’s boys completed 12 defensive actions and won 53% out of 17 face-offs. Mitchell Marner and Alexander Kerfoot scored their goals in the 52nd and 56th, respectively.

Mitchell Marner was the third star of this fixture. He finished the game with one goal, one assist and a +3 impact index, which was the best result among both teams. Jack Campbell showed one of the worst matches in the current season with only an 85% saves ratio.

The Maple Leafs have made a total of over 32.5 shots on target in five of the last seven matches. The same result is priced with the odds of 1.70 (-143; 7/10) in this game.

Toronto Maple Leafs team news: Petr Mrazek — groin injury, Rasmus Sandin — knee injury.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs H2H

Tampa have won two out of four H2H matches against the Maple Leafs in the regular season. They showed a strong defence. The Lightning completed 231 defensive actions in four games. They made 122 shots on target and finished 16 of them successfully. Jon Cooper’s men 47.5% out of 242 face-offs.

The Maple Leafs made 148 shots on target and bagged 12 goals. They completed 186 defensive actions and won 127 remaining face-offs.

Lineups and key players

Toronto Maple Leafs projected first lineup:

• Erik Kallgren
• T. J. Brodie
• Morgan Rielly
• Mitchell Marner
• Auston Matthews
• Pierre Engvall

Mitch Marner was the third star in the first two rounds. He is the best attacker in the play-offs. Marner scored two goals and made three assists in the first two matches.

Tampa Bay Lightning projected starting lineup:

• Andrei Vasilevskiy
• Jan Rutta
• Victor Hedman
• Steven Stamkos
• Anthony Cirelli
• Ondrej Palat

Victor Hedman was the best player of the previous round. In the regular season, Hedman scored 20 goals and made 65 assists in 82 fixtures.

Prediction and betting tips

The Toronto Maple Leafs showed flawless play in the first round against Tampa. They lost the second one, but their attack was not bad in this fixture. Mitch Marner showed a confident performance again. The main reason for their loss was a weak performance from two best players of the first round.

Auston Matthews made only one assist after an incredible first round. Jack Campbell who saved 100% of shots in the first round finished the second one only with 85% saves ratio. Even with such a bad game from key players, they finished with a 3-5 score. I believe that they will be able to win if their key players show at least a not bad performance. Also, they have won three of the last four H2H matches in the Amalie Arena.

Betting prediction: The Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT)

Odds: 2.00 (+100 American; 1/1 Fractions)